How to Win the Console Wars

Expect the console wars heat up again this fall, when video gamers will begin to see still more choices as to what sort of system they can game on. There is a lot speculation floating around about the future of game consoles, and the word is that all three major platforms will be showing-off their next-generation hardware at E3 2005. This is a quick summary of rumors we've heard so far, and a little advice for the console manufacturers.

XBox 2/Next/360
The sequel to Microsoft's XBox may arrive as early as this fall. Microsoft likes to use the word "convergence" when they talk about their projects. There's little doubt that you will be able to watch movies, listen to music, and maybe even download media on the device.

It's almost certain to have wireless controllers and an ATI graphics card capable of VGA or better output, meaning that you'll be able to plug in a high resolution TV or computer monitor. There is talk about using an HD-DVD drive, although many pundits are convinced it will support only a standard DVD drive. Several versions of the console are planned: the basic model, a model with a (removeable?) hard drive, and a model touted as an entry-level PC which would include a keyboard, mouse, and CD burner. Microsoft is likely to use IBM 64-bit PowerPC processors.

PlayStation 3
Current estimates put Sony's next full size console on store shelves sometime in the first half of 2006, perhaps earlier if they don't want Microsoft to get too much of a head start.

Rather than DVD, Sony is going with Blu-ray Discs, which have a capacity of up to 50 GB. They are using a new "Cell" processor manufactured by IBM, and by all accounts, it is indeed a spectacular piece of 64-bit dual-core technology that will easily outperform the fastest Pentium processors currently available. It's also clear that Sony intends to put a lot of emphasis on networking and experiment with "grid computing."

Like Microsoft, odds are that Sony will offer mutiple versions of the machine. More expensive units will probably include hard drives and have addition media playback capabilities.

Sony seems committed to making the console backward compatible.

Nintendo "Revolution"
Likely the most secretive of the three major console manufacturers, Nintendo claims to be working on something "revolutionary," but they're not disclosing many details. They have said that simply making a system capable of better graphics (presumably Sony's tactic) is not enough, and that they want to create entirely new ways of playing games.

Judging from some of the technology they've patented, this will involve a variety of new input devices, and possibly a special monitor with an integrated eye tracking device which keeps the image on the screen centered on what the user is looking at.

We can safely assume that all next-generation consoles will come with built-in network adapters, ready to be jacked into a Cable or DSL Internet connection.

Winning the War
It's curious to me that while MS and Sony have already had success making their consoles capable of playing media other than games, and it appears to be an ongoing part of their approach, they all still seem determined to offer games only on their own proprietary platforms. Just imagine having to purchase a music CD or a DVD based on whether you own a player made by Sony, or one made by Panasonic.

I'd say that the time for a standardized game format, similar to music on CDs and movies on DVD, is long overdue. With the possible exception of portables, is there really any need to have four major game platforms?

Of course, the big players all want their platform to dominate, so we're not likely to see much agreement on which format to use anytime soon. That's why the first to make their platform PC compatible is going to come out of this war way ahead, in my opinion.

If XBox games could be played on a PC, for example, and PlayStation games couldn't, this would be a significant advantage for XBox. Ideally, the console would be able to run PC games as well. No doubt, people with a lot of PlayStation games would stick with PlayStation, at least for a while, but it would be quite different for those choosing their first console. Perhaps more importantly, game developers would be inclined to build games for the combined PC and XBox markets first, and deal with the other platforms later.

Microsoft is obviously in the best position to make a PC compatible console, because they develop Windows, the most popular OS for PC gaming, and the XBox already has a lot of similarities with the PC. In fact, they have talked about it before, so this could well be part of the plan for the next XBox.

If MS does take this route, I think it will only be a matter of time before Sony and Nintendo have to follow suit. How much time is hard to say, since issues like backward compatibility sit squarely in the path of a standardized format. Worse yet, MS and Sony appear to be throwing their weight behind different and incompatible optical drive techonologies, with MS leaning toward HD-DVD and Sony pushing Blu-ray.

It could be years before it happens, but I'm confident that someday we will be able to purchase games without giving hardware platforms a second thought. With a little luck, our aging game consoles won't take up as much closet space as our aging computers and 8-track tape players.

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